Ecosystems/Climate

CCR is working toward improving understanding of the interactions of processess within the coupled biosphere-atmosphere-hydrosphere system at a global scale, and their implications for biodiversity and resource management at the global to regional scale. Our initial regional focus is on North America and its surrounding seas. The structure of North American ecosystems and the diversity of species can be affected by many factors, including changes in land use, habitat fragmentation, introduction of species from other countries, changes in atmospheric composition, and changes in climate. The goal of the research is to estimate various scenarios of possible ecosystem structure and diversity changes in the future. In order to accomplish this goal, we need to document and understand similar changes in the past. The experience gained from studies of past changes will aid in assessing the accuracy of future scenarios .

We will use and improve models of terrestrial and marine ecosystems that are capable of simulating changes in ecosystem structure and changes in species diversity. These ecosystem models will then be coupled to a global dynamical climate model. By combining the terrestrial and marine biosphere models with the basic climate model, we will have a means of simulating important features of ecosystems. Studies of changes in ecosystems are closely linked to studies of the earth's carbon cycle, because carbon dioxide is exchanged between the atmosphere, ocean, and the biosphere. The models can therefore also be used to study past, recent, and future changes in the carbon budget of the planet.

Our goal is to produce future scenarios of possible changes in biodiversity, associated with both natural and human-caused modifications of the planet, that will be of value to land and marine management organizations, such as the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the US Geological Survey, as these organizations consider policy options related to the biological resources of North America and the surrounding seas. Collaborators in this project include investigators at CCR, the USGS, the MPI for Biogeochemistry, and the National Center for Climatic Research.